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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."